ArgumentNo. 6/2014

Economics of the earthquake risk mitigation in the urban and constructive structure

Abstract

In this paper, a research encompassing the following will be presented:

1. Review process

- Review of novel approaches such as game theory, drama theory and conflict based software for multi-criteria decision problems in the field of climate change and natural disasters.

- Application of game theory for urban simulation of the economic environment

- review of alternative decision systems for earthquake resilient planning

- Participation as urban public policy and a particular case of decision making.

2. Setting up comparative analyses

- Comparison betweek agent based modeling versus drama theory and conflict based software

- Comparison between the linear spread of disaters and the random one in games (SimCity) and GIS.

- Application of a Monte Carlo simulation to numerical simulations at building scale used for the computation of costs using the retrofit elements method developed by the applicant; comparison with real examples of earthquake retrofit and their costs (planned conservation: preventive retrofit versus post-earthquake repair).

3. Modeling

- The grid of the planned (re)construction, from case studies to computer games

- Integration into a decision system based on regression between the two scales: building object and urban scale of the quarter.

- Ontology of decision (the IT component of the modeling).

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